Framework
Pre-Mortem
Imagine the failure before it happens.
- Best for
- Committing to a plan or project
- Time needed
- 20 minutes
- Origin
- Gary Klein, popularised in Thinking, Fast and Slow.
Before committing, assume the decision failed spectacularly and write the story of why. This surfaces risks that ordinary risk lists miss, because you're now looking for them, not defending against them.
Use it when
- You're about to commit to a plan you feel good about.
- The team is unanimous — a warning sign in itself.
- The decision is hard to reverse.
Skip it when
- The decision is small and cheap to undo.
- You're already in execution and need momentum, not doubt.
The steps
- 01
State the decision as if made
'We chose option A. It's now six months later.'
- 02
Assume total failure
It went badly. Don't argue — just accept the premise.
- 03
Write the story of why
List every plausible cause, ordered by likelihood.
- 04
Extract the top three risks
Ask: could we mitigate any of these now?
- 05
Decide whether to proceed, mitigate, or reshape
Sometimes the right answer is a smaller version.
A worked example
"Should we launch the new pricing next month?"
Assume it flopped. Story: churn spiked because grandfathered customers felt betrayed; the messaging didn't explain value; sales couldn't answer objections.
Outcome
Launch, but with grandfathering, a values email, and a one-page sales script.
Where it quietly breaks
- Turning it into a debate about whether it will fail — the whole point is to assume it did.
- Producing a risk list nobody acts on.
Run this on a real decision — in Compass.
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